Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
